If you have put your home search on hold because you are waiting for mortgage rates to fall significantly, there is one question worth considering:

Will waiting actually put you in a better position to buy?

Mortgage rates may decline over time, but there is no guarantee they will fall as quickly — or by as much — as buyers hope.

And rates are only one part of affordability.

Lower rates do not necessarily mean a better buying opportunity

If mortgage rates fall, monthly borrowing costs may improve.

But other things can change at the same time.

More buyers may return to the market. Competition can increase. Sellers may become less negotiable. And the home you want may cost more.

Today's market, by comparison, is giving many buyers something they have not always had: choice, time and negotiating room.

That can have real value.

Rather than asking only, “Will mortgage rates be lower next year?”, a better question may be:

“Will I be in a meaningfully stronger financial and purchasing position if I wait?”

Look at the whole purchase, not just the rate

A small change in mortgage rates is only one number in a much larger equation.

Purchase price, down payment, monthly payment, property taxes, strata fees, closing costs and your own financial comfort all matter.

The lowest mortgage rate is not necessarily the best mortgage either. Fixed and variable options, term length, prepayment privileges, penalties and flexibility can all affect what makes sense for you.

This is where a good mortgage professional can be invaluable.

There may be opportunities in today's market

When buyers have more choice, they can often take more time to compare properties, review documents carefully and negotiate with greater confidence.

That doesn't mean you should buy simply because the market is quieter.

It does mean that waiting for a particular interest rate could cause you to overlook an opportunity that works well for you today.

Sometimes negotiating a better purchase price can have as much — or more — impact than waiting for a modest change in borrowing costs.

Preparation matters more than prediction

No one can tell you exactly where mortgage rates will be six or twelve months from now.

What you can know is:

• what you comfortably qualify for today;

• what your monthly payment would be;

• how much cash you need for your down payment and closing costs;

• what homes are available within that budget; and

• how buying now compares with waiting.

And qualifying for a certain amount does not mean you need to spend it.

The goal should always be a purchase that works comfortably within your finances and longer-term plans.

So, should you wait?

Sometimes, absolutely.

Waiting may make sense if it allows you to build a larger down payment, reduce debt, improve your income stability or become more certain about where and what you want to buy.

But if the only reason you are waiting is because you are convinced mortgage rates will be significantly lower soon, it may be worth revisiting that assumption.

There is no perfect interest rate and there is rarely a perfect market.

The better strategy is to understand what you can comfortably afford, know what opportunities exist today and compare the advantages of buying now with the possible benefits of waiting.

Then you can make the decision based on your life and your finances — rather than trying to predict where rates will go next.

As expected, the Bank of Canada held its overnight lending rate at 2.25% today, marking the fifth consecutive rate hold.

While this announcement does not change much for current mortgage holders, it does give us something the market has been missing for a while: a little more predictability.

The Bank is still watching inflation, global uncertainty and ongoing U.S. trade concerns closely. For now, there is no strong signal that another rate cut is imminent — but there also does not appear to be immediate pressure to raise rates.

What Does This Mean for Buyers?

For first-time buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to fall further, it may be time to revisit the conversation.

Five consecutive rate holds have created a more stable lending environment, making it easier to plan around your own finances rather than trying to guess what the Bank of Canada may do next.

Getting pre-approved does not mean you have to buy. It simply gives you a clear understanding of your budget, your monthly payments and what you would feel comfortable purchasing should the right home come along.

In today’s market, being informed and prepared can put you in a much stronger position than trying to perfectly time the next rate announcement.

There is a lot of noise right now around rates, inflation, renewals and what it all means for homeowners. To help make sense of it, we wanted to share this update from a mortgage advisor, Toma Sojonky.

Toma’s perspective is practical and very timely: while rates matter, the bigger conversation for many households is cash flow. For anyone approaching a renewal, it may be worth looking beyond the posted rate and considering whether the mortgage can be restructured in a way that better supports everyday life.

STANDING PAT: THE BOC AND YOU

No changes to the Bank of Canada’s Policy rate, ergo no changes to your lender’s Prime rate (4.45%). That means, status quo on the rate/payment for your variable mortgage and HELOC. Of course, your fixed rate mortgage is unaffected.

War, oil and tariffs all have bond traders betting this morning that inflation is around the corner. Five-year yields are up, so new fixed mortgage rates shouldn’t be far behind. 

In standing pat with their Policy rate today, the BOC said they are “looking through the war’s immediate impact on inflation but will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation.”

So, yeah; let’s selfishly hope for a quick end to the conflict…but it seems an increase may be on the horizon regardless – as this expensive gas splashes through Canada’s otherwise sputtering economy.

Renewal Remedies

The news above is just peachy for those renewing their mortgage in this environment. Someone who took out $500,000 at 1.99% five years ago started with a monthly payment of $2,115 amortized over 25 years. A renewal at say 3.99% makes your new payment $2,528.

A quick remedy? Well, you’ve borrowed the money; why not borrow some time? Stretching the amortization out to 30 years reduces the payment to $2,013. Going backwards may sound unappealing, but to me, it’s about manageable payments and preserving ownership...that’s YOU standing pat. Rate is impactful but let’s focus on where the rubber meets the road: household, after-tax cash flow.

Add a dash of debt consolidation and we are decimating third-party obligations like car payments and credit cards – only adding to your cashflow relief. We turned a client’s $900 car payment into a $40/month add-on to the restructured mortgage. Exhale!

We’ve been doing this all Spring and expect it to end in around 1.5 years when Canada’s “Renewal Wave” subsides. The key takeaway: well before that renewal letter shows up, don’t just think rate…remember it as the opportunity to restructure and get your house in order.

If you or anyone you know may want payment relief at renewal, share this email or utter my name!

Next BOC announcement is June 10.

Until then, take care,
Toma Sojonky - Mortgage Advisor
Verico Paragon Mortgage Inc.

Yesterday’s Bank of Canada hold means variable rates stay put, while fixed rates will continue to move based on bond yields and inflation expectations—not the Bank’s decision itself.

Here’s a reminder of how these decisions affect fixed & variable interest rates:

🔹 1. Variable rates — “direct connection”

Think of this like a light switch.

• The Bank of Canada sets a key rate

• Banks use that to set prime rate

• Variable mortgages = Prime ± something

👉 So:

• If the Bank raises → variable rates go up

• If the Bank cuts → variable rates go down

• If the Bank holds → variable rates stay basically the same

✔️ That’s why today:
👉 No change = no real change to variable rates (Canadian Mortgage Services)

🔹 2. Fixed rates — “market-driven”

Fixed rates are NOT set by the Bank of Canada directly

Instead, they follow bond yields (especially 5-year bonds)

And bond yields are driven by:

• Inflation expectations

• Economic outlook

• Global events (oil, wars, U.S. economy, etc.)

👉 So fixed rates are more like a stock price — always moving

✔️ Even if the Bank does nothing:

• Fixed rates can go up or down anyway

• Because markets are constantly reacting

(Example: rising oil prices today are creating inflation concerns, which can push bond yields—and fixed rates—around) (Reuters)

🔹 Simple analogy:

• Variable rate = tied to the Bank (like a thermostat you control)

• Fixed rate = tied to the market (like the weather outside)

🔹 What today’s “hold” really means

• ✅ Variable-rate clients: steady / no change

• ⚠️ Fixed-rate clients: still watching inflation + bond market

The takeaway…
Even without a rate change, borrowing costs can still move—so timing and strategy still matter.

Posted 5-year Mortgage Rates:

January 2025: 6.79%
January 2026: 4.56%

Savings per $100K per month: $130.69

2025 Year-End Market Insights

Bottom Line

For many buyers, especially financially qualified ones, the North Shore is currently a favourable market to buy because:

• Inventory is elevated and sales are below historical norms, creating buyer leverage.

• Prices have softened or stabilized compared with recent highs.

• Mortgage rates are more predictable and lower than in the past year.

• Forecasts suggest modest market improvement ahead, so buying before broad demand re-emerges may be advantageous.