BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Canadian Real GDP Growth - October 31, 2011

The Canadian economy expanded 0.3 per cent in August following an upwardly revised 0.4 per cent gain in July. Economic growth was led by a 2.8 per cent increase in output in the energy sector as projects re-started from temporary shutdowns in the summer. Excluding the energy sector, monthly GDP growth was flat.

Through the first two months of the third quarter the Canadian economy is growing at about a 2.0 per cent rate – an improvement from the recession fears of the summer, but far from robust. We anticipate the economy will continue to grow at about a 1.5 to 2.0 per cent rate for the second half of the year. Slower than potential economic growth will put moderate downward pressure on inflation and keep the Bank of Canada in a holding pattern.

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