✅ Evidence in favor of a “pause / in-transition” market now

• Sales remain significantly below long-term norms. The October 2025 report from GVR shows 2,255 residential sales — 14.3% fewer than October 2024, and some 14.5% below the 10-year seasonal average.

• Inventory remains elevated. As of October 2025, there were 16,393 active listings — up 13.2% from a year ago and well above the 10-year seasonal average of about 12,063.

• Sales-to-active-listings ratio is low (especially for certain segments). In October 2025, the ratio was 11.3% for detached homes — below the ~12% threshold typically associated with downward price pressure.

• Benchmark prices — especially for detached homes and apartments — are pressured or slipping. October 2025 saw decreases in benchmark prices for detached homes, condos, and townhouses (compared with the prior year).

• Province-wide outlook expects modest growth, not a boom. According to BCREA’s “2025 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast,” the average price in BC is expected to rise only ~4% in 2026, with the market described as “balanced,” driven partly by a rebound in higher-cost Lower Mainland markets.

• Overall, residential sales across BC remain sluggish. BCREA reported a decline in total MLS® residential sales in October 2025, down about 10.2% compared with October 2024.

All of this suggests that demand is out of sync with supply at the moment — more choices than buyers, especially among certain segments, which naturally slows things down. For a buyer, that’s likely good news (more selection, less competition). For a seller, it means a more tempered — and cautious — market.

🔄 Signs the Market Might “Restart” or Shift Toward Balance by 2026

That said — calling it a full “freeze” would be misleading. There are reasons to believe 2026 could bring renewed momentum, which makes “pause” a helpful — but temporary — descriptor.

• According to BCREA’s forecast, 2026 is expected to bring a rebound: they forecast a rise in MLS® sales (and a mild uptick in prices), as markets across BC — including the Lower Mainland — regain some momentum.

• Some segments may already be stabilizing: GVR’s June 2025 data saw sales down ~9.8% year-over-year, but the year-over-year decline was roughly half of the prior month’s drop — a sign that the downward spiral might be bottoming out.

• The broader public commentary and market-commentary (from local brokerages, economists) suggest that what we’re seeing is “normalization” — not collapse. Many analysts expect 2025–2026 to return more to “long-term norms” rather than the extremes seen in boom years.

So — while things are slow now, the pieces are in place for a rebound or at least a market stabilization by mid-2026, rather than a prolonged slump.

📍 What “Pause Until 2026” Means — and What It Doesn’t

When we say “pause until 2026,” we mean:

• A balanced or buyer-favoured environment — not a market crash, but a calmer, more measured pace than the frenzy of 2021–2022.

• Selective activity — certain segments / property types (price range, neighbourhood, property style) will outperform others; what moves may depend on pricing, condition, and marketing finesse.

• Opportunities for both buyers and sellers — buyers get more choice and negotiating power; sellers who price well & market smart may still do well, though timing and positioning matter more than ever.

• Less volatility overall — price swings likely to be muted compared with the past few years.

But that doesn’t mean:

• No deals — there will still be sales; some properties will draw interest, especially well-positioned ones, and motivated buyers will still act.

• Uniformity across Greater Vancouver — local variances (by municipality, neighbourhood, property type) will drive different results; North Vancouver may not behave exactly like Surrey or downtown Vancouver.

• Guaranteed rebound by 2026 — forecasts always carry uncertainty; economic conditions, interest rates, immigration, and other macro factors could shift the trajectory.

We think that “pause until 2026” is more or less what the data reflect now, especially for Metro-Greater Vancouver broadly. But I’d phrase it not as “a freeze,” but as “a market resetting toward equilibrium,” with potential upside if macro conditions align (rates, economy, immigration, buyer confidence, etc.).